Abstract

British drug control policy is typically based on obsolete knowledge. For example, the latest information available on the number of heroin seizures at best tells us what happened over two years ago. This paper explores the utility of heroin spread projection modelling developed in America in the 1970s. Using two basic principles (microdiffusion, or how heroin use spreads from individual to individual; and macrodiffusion, how heroin use spreads from community to community) the spread of heroin in Britain is modelled using a computer program developed by the authors. When compared to "real" data, the model proves to be surprisingly robust. Of interest, the model indicates an unexpected rise in heroin use incidence in the early part of the 21st century - just as overall heroin use prevalence is due to decline.

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